As former President Donald Trump zeroes in on a vice presidential running mate, two top finalists are emerging: North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum and Sen. JD Vance of Ohio.
In interviews with NBC News, more than a dozen sources wired into the process described an intensifying debate over the strengths and weaknesses each candidate would bring to the ticket.
A third prospect, Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida, remains in contention, sources said. But doubts about his enthusiasm for the job and concerns about navigating a constitutional hang-up that would require Trump or Rubio to establish residency in another state have persisted in ways that could jeopardize his chances.
Publicly, Trump has said he expects to announce his choice closer to, or at, the Republican National Convention, which begins July 15 in Milwaukee. But three sources familiar with discussions said timing remains a topic of debate. One option is for Trump to announce days earlier — immediately after his July 11 sentencing on 34 felony counts — in an effort to quickly move past a damaging news cycle.
A source said, however, the pick could also come before the sentencing in an attempt to generate a fundraising windfall that’s divorced from Trump’s sentencing or the convention, both of which his allies expect to drive significant donations. Another source said that scenario was unlikely out of fear that his legal troubles would quickly drown out any news bounce from his running-mate reveal.
The campaign’s VP deliberations have been closely guarded and, given Trump’s love for the element of surprise, could veer abruptly in other directions.
“As President Trump has said himself, the top criteria in selecting a vice president is a strong leader who will make a great president for eight years after his next four-year term concludes,” senior Trump campaign adviser Brian Hughes said in a statement. “But anyone telling you they know who or when President Trump will choose his VP is lying unless that person is named Donald J. Trump.”
Internally, a key point of tension and indecision is balancing the desire for a running mate who is non-threatening against the desire for someone who also can be considered the future of Trump’s movement, a source familiar with the search said. That tension, the source added, runs throughout the campaign, including with Trump.
Burgum, Vance and Rubio have been at the top of Trump’s shortlist for weeks, as first reported by NBC News. But with the convention now less than a month away, jockeying that ranges from public auditions to behind-the-scenes maneuvering has crescendoed as speculation — some of it idle, some of it informed — swells among those eagerly awaiting Trump’s decision. Other candidates previously viewed as prospects, including Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina and Rep. Elise Stefanik of New York, might remain on the periphery of contention but are not discussed with the same intensity as Burgum, Vance or Rubio, according to sources.
On Thursday, Burgum campaigned on Trump’s behalf in battleground Michigan, while Vance appeared with Trump at a fundraiser in Cleveland. The audience there clapped approvingly when Trump asked whether he should select Vance as his running mate, a source who was in the room said.
Rubio spoke last week at a birthday celebration for Trump in West Palm Beach, Florida. His rocky history with Trump from when they ran against each other for the GOP presidential nomination in 2016 has also resurfaced, with a person close to Trump in recent weeks reinforcing to him Rubio’s history of negative comments, according to a person familiar with the matter.
Steve Bannon, Trump’s former chief White House strategist and host of a podcast that is popular with GOP voters, listed Burgum, Vance and Stefanik among “top-tier folks running hard” to be picked.
“Unlike 2016, [there is a] deep bench of talent,” Bannon said. “Looks like a Cabinet being formed. There will be lots of consolation prizes for these killers.”
Burgum, largely unknown outside North Dakota a year ago when he launched his own long-shot presidential campaign, has rocketed to the top tier in part by proving himself up for anything.
He has popped up with increasing frequency on right-leaning talk shows, as well as at Trump rallies and GOP chicken dinners. He trekked twice to New York for Trump’s trial on charges he falsified documents, which ended last month with convictions on all counts. And next week, Burgum will headline a “video conference” for Trump, at which the price to participate in a Q&A session via Zoom is $25,000, according to an invitation obtained by NBC News.
Burgum has impressed Trump with his loyalty, looks and money. He was the first of Trump’s most credible primary challengers to endorse him, and he has the central casting appearance of a dashing businessman-turned-governor who once sold a software company in a billion-dollar stock deal.
The arguments for Burgum are mostly about Trump: The former president enjoys spending time with the governor, Burgum is unlikely to ever outshine him, and Burgum’s struggle to break through in the primaries suggests he wouldn’t be a likely heir apparent who draws attention from Trump in the latter years of a second administration.
With few clues coming directly from Trump, Republicans are reading tea leaves from his allies. Longtime Trump adviser Roger Stone posed for a photo last week for Burgum — a brief break from his efforts to promote his first choice, former Democratic Rep. Tulsi Gabbard of Hawaii.“I … really like @GovDougBurgum,” Stone posted on X after he and Burgum both spoke at a GOP event in Florida.
Burgum is telling associates that he is “just hoping there’s a place for him” in a Trump administration, said a person who has spoken with him recently. But, this person added, Burgum’s demeanor suggests he “thinks he has a great shot” at the VP slot.
Vance, who also attended the trial and has headlined several Trump fundraisers while maintaining a steady TV presence, has something no other contender has: a Trump family member openly advocating for him.
Donald Trump Jr., the former president’s eldest son, promoted Vance for the job on his podcast last month and in a March interview with the New York Post (whose editorial board this week endorsed Burgum).
“I’ve advocated for you for all the reasons you’re talking” about, Trump Jr. said while interviewing Vance on his podcast. “I really want to see, like, the JD Vance-Kamala Harris vice presidential debate. There’s some other nice people that could be vice president, I guess.”
Trump Jr., who is close with Vance, routinely reposts him on social media. And while other family members, especially former first lady Melania Trump, might have equal or greater influence over the selection, Vance has caught the attention of another Trump son, Eric, and his wife, Lara, who co-chairs the Republican National Committee. Both have reposted him or shared his TV appearances with their social media followers in recent weeks — something they haven’t done for Burgum or Rubio.
Then there’s Rubio, an attractive — and perhaps more traditional — option because of his potential appeal to Hispanic voters, suburban women and the older-guard Republicans who ruled the party when he was a finalist to be Mitt Romney’s running mate 12 years ago.
But Rubio never showed up at court for Trump’s criminal trial, unlike Burgum and Vance. (His team didn’t reply to a request for comment on why he didn’t go.) The residency issue could be trickier than it appears on paper, given the nuances of the Electoral College, which doesn’t allow electors to vote for a presidential and a vice presidential candidate from the same state. And Rubio’s suggestive comment about Trump’s “small hands” during the 2016 presidential primaries is the kind of schoolyard taunt Trump might not want to reward with such a plum offer.
Rubio’s case could be helped, though, by his relationship with top Trump campaign strategist Susie Wiles and other Florida GOP politicos working on or closely with Trump’s campaign. And Rubio still has champions in Trump’s orbit.
“Marco is 100% in the game,” said one Republican operative in Florida. “Right now, I would have to call JD Vance the favorite, but if the residency thing was not an issue, I’m fairly certain Marco would be the guy.”
A source who has spoken with Trump about the running mate search described the residency factor as an issue that is easy to fix as long as Rubio relocates. The source added that Rubio was impressive in defending Trump on TV during the trial, which was as valuable to Trump as attending in person.
“Trump saw him on TV night after night, including the night of his conviction,” the source said. “If he sees you on TV, he doesn’t need to see you in the courthouse.”
Burgum would be a better fit in the Cabinet, the source added. Vance, at 39, has a “big future,” but “Trump needs fighters in the Senate.”
Those and other considerations are part of the calculus in evaluating Burgum and Vance. Both also have records of criticizing Trump.
Burgum has in recent weeks walked back comments in an interview last year on NBC News’ “Meet the Press” in which he said he wouldn’t do business with Trump, because “it’s important that you’re judged by the company you keep.” In an interview this week on Fox News, Burgum said he “only really got to know [Trump] as a person” after having spent more time with him on the campaign trail this year.
Vance, who was on record voting for independent Evan McMullin for president in 2016, has a particularly lengthy history of Trump-bashing. But he has since said that Trump proved him wrong and that most of the criticism was aired by rivals during his 2022 Senate campaign — a race in which Trump endorsed him in a crowded GOP primary. Many fervent followers of Trump’s Make America Great Again movement have embraced Vance as one of their own.
“JD is the only person in the final three — Rubio, Burgum, JD Vance — that is a popular elected official in the blue wall, and he’s also under the age of 40,” prominent pro-Trump activist Charlie Kirk, noting Vance’s Midwest base and potential appeal to younger voters, said last week in an interview with NBC News. “So I’m on Team Vance.”
Others see fundraising as Vance’s weakness. National Republicans spent tens of millions of dollars on his 2022 Senate race after Vance struggled to match his Democratic opponent’s fundraising. Two sources questioned whether Vance’s far-right politics might be a turnoff to more establishment-minded donors.
“A lot of donors that have been resistant to go all in but are now generally supportive of Trump don’t understand the Vance logic,” said a source who is plugged in with donors.
Vance has worked to demonstrate stronger fundraising aptitude. A recent Silicon Valley event, which started with a goal of $5 million, hauled in $12 million, a source familiar with the fundraiser said.
