Welcome to the online version of From the Politics Desk, an evening newsletter that brings you the NBC News Politics team’s latest reporting and analysis from the campaign trail, the White House and Capitol Hill.
In today’s edition, we report on the close allies of President Joe Biden who no longer see a path to victory. Plus, political reporter Allan Smith explains why Biden is looking to France to make his case for staying in the 2024 race.
Sign up to receive this newsletter in your inbox every weekday here.
Biden insiders say the writing is on the wall
By Jonathan Allen, Natasha Korecki and Carol E. Lee
Several of President Joe Biden’s closest allies, including three people who are directly involved in efforts to re-elect him, told NBC News they now see his chances of winning as zero — and the likelihood of him taking down fellow Democratic candidates growing.
“He needs to drop out,” one Biden campaign official said. “He will never recover from this.”
For two weeks, Biden has struggled to stabilize his campaign following a late-June debate debacle. His ongoing clean-up effort, which includes top aides meeting privately with Democratic senators and a presidential news conference Thursday, has done little to reassure lawmakers and party officials.
Instead, the reverse is happening.
Do you have a news tip? Let us know
The set of Democrats who think he should reconsider his decision to stay in the race has grown to include aides, operatives and officials tasked with guiding his campaign to victory. Those who spoke to NBC News said the sentiment that he should exit and leave the Democratic nomination to someone else — most likely Vice President Kamala Harris — is widespread even within the ranks of the campaign and the outside Democratic entities supporting it.
“No one involved in the effort thinks he has a path,” said a second person working to elect him.
A third person close to the campaign said the present situation — the questions swirling around Biden’s cognitive abilities, the dearth of fundraising and more polls showing Biden dropping in support and other candidates faring better — is unsustainable. This person also said they didn’t see how the campaign could win.
Biden campaign chair Jen O’Malley Dillon and campaign manager Julie Chavez Rodriguez sent a memo to staff Thursday outlining why they believe the president can still win. They said they still view Georgia and Arizona as winnable, along with the “Blue Wall” states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.
Growing pressure: Meanwhile, a steady stream of Democratic officials are continuing to urge Biden to withdraw from the race. Reps. Hillary Scholten of Michigan, Brad Schneider of Illinois, Ed Case of Hawaii and Greg Stanton of Arizona joined the growing ranks of House Democrats to publicly call on Biden to end his campaign, while Sen. Peter Welch of Vermont became the first Senate Democrat to do so.
As NBC News’ Alex Seitz-Wald writes, Biden’s superpower inside the Democratic Party since the 2020 primary campaign has been the belief that he can defeat Donald Trump. But electability is quickly becoming his potential kryptonite as members of his party worry he’s poised to lose re-election and bring down everyone else with him.
Biden looks to French elections to boost his political case — but it’s complicated
By Allan Smith
As Biden faces increasing calls to leave the presidential race, he’s sought to bolster his case for staying in by pointing across the Atlantic Ocean to another election that defied dire polling and panic on the center and left.
Speaking on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe” on Monday, one day after France’s right-wing National Rally party and its allies finished third in seats won in France’s snap parliamentary elections, Biden contrasted the French result with his own election this fall. The right lost despite leading after first-round voting and in public opinion polls.
“France rejected extremism,” Biden said. “Democrats will reject it here as well.”
Biden reiterated the point on a call with some of his biggest campaign donors and backers that same day, as a person on the call told NBC News. “One of the things that’s happening around the world is the extreme right, the extreme MAGA conservatives of France, the [Marine] Le Pen party and others, they’re getting killed, they’re getting kicked because people are going, ‘Whoa, we’re not going there,’” Biden said, according to the source. (His comment was first reported by The New York Times.)
But France’s vote wasn’t as simple as the narrative Biden served up. The elections were a rejection of the far right but also of French President Emmanuel Macron and his centrist coalition. It’s the latest data point in a trend that is ricocheting around the world — one that experts say should have Biden very concerned. Voters, dissatisfied with the post-Covid economy and, in some cases, angered over influxes of immigrants, are dealing incumbents setback after setback at the ballot box.
And as Biden confronts intense political backlash following his dismal debate performance last month, surveys show American voters expressing similar dissatisfaction with the status quo, which has helped Trump build narrow polling leads nationally and in battleground states.
“It’s a bad time to be an incumbent,” said Ian Bremmer, president and founder of the Eurasia Group, a geopolitical risk firm, adding that electorates around the globe are pushing for change. “No matter what you think of Biden’s record, no matter how much you think he accomplished, this is just a hard time for an incumbent to win.”
🗞️ Today’s top stories
- 🔑 Key(stone) ally: Senate Democrats fighting for re-election in battleground states this year are keeping Biden at arm’s length. But Pennsylvania’s Bob Casey has been a notable exception. Read more →
- 👀 Poll position: The Biden campaign is quietly assessing the viability of Vice President Kamala Harris if she were to run against Trump in a new head-to-head poll, according to a source familiar with the decision. Read more →
- 📝 2025 vision: Trump has sought to disavow Project 2025, an expansive conservative plan backed by more than 100 groups for his potential second administration. But many of Trump’s key allies have been directly involved in the production of the project. Read more →
- 🌊 A ‘landslide’?: The Atlantic spent months talking with Trump’s top campaign hands about how they believe their candidate is on track for a big win – and why they hope Biden stays at the top of the Democratic ticket. Read more →
- 📉 Slowed down: Price increases slowed more sharply than expected in June, adding to evidence that high inflation has subsided and potentially clearing the way for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates. Read more →
- 🚫 Voted down: The GOP-led House rejected a resolution to hold Attorney General Merrick Garland in “inherent contempt” for failing to turn over the audiotapes of Biden’s interview with special counsel Robert Hur. Read more →
- 🗳️ Ballot battle: Arkansas’ secretary of state nixed an effort to get a constitutional amendment enshrining abortion rights onto the general election ballot in a ruling that may be appealed. Read more →
That’s all from the Politics Desk for now. If you have feedback — likes or dislikes — email us at politicsnewsletter@nbcuni.com
And if you’re a fan, please share with everyone and anyone. They can sign up here.
