Russia’s Baltic neighbors are breaking away from its power grid — and they’re braced for retaliation

The Baltic countries of Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia are bracing themselves for possible sabotage and cyberattacks this weekend as they complete their long-awaited decoupling from Russia’s power grid.

The Baltic states are due to fully disconnect from the Moscow-controlled “BRELL” energy network on Saturday, before completing their connection to the European electricity system on Sunday.

The move is seen as a crucial way to strengthen their electricity systems, ensure energy independence and security, and to dismantle the remnants of the post-Soviet era that have tethered the Baltic states to Russia.

Gert Auväärt, head of Estonia’s Cyber Security Centre, told CNBC that the country was working closely with its neighbors in the cybersecurity domain to prepare for potential risk scenarios when the decoupling takes place.

“The transition has been thoroughly planned, and experts assess the likelihood of serious problems as low. However, Russia may attempt to exploit this period to create uncertainty,” he said in emailed comments Thursday.

“Thanks to strong national and international cooperation, Estonia is well-prepared even for worst-case scenarios — though this does not mean such threats will materialize,” he added.

Whether Russia will let the Baltics’ momentous disconnection from “BRELL” — an acronym for Belarus, Russia, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania that refers to their 2001 agreement to synchronize their power grids — go unanswered remains to be seen.

But the potential for retaliation from Russia is being taken seriously by Baltic energy ministries and transmission system operators like Elering, Estonia’s state-owned grid operator.

“The preparations are complete, and we are ready for desynchronisation,” Kalle Kilk, head of Elering, said in a statement Thursday, describing the process as a “unique undertaking in the recent history of energy, in terms of its scale and complexity.”

“Although major technical changes always involve certain risks, we have analysed them thoroughly and developed appropriate action plans. With a planned transition, the average electricity consumer should not notice any change.”

“What cannot be predicted one hundred percent, however, is a situation where energy is used as a weapon. So, what is dangerous is not so much disconnecting from Russia, because we have been preparing for this for years, but continuing to be connected to the Russia electricity system,” Kilk said.

CNBC has asked the Kremlin and Russian energy ministry for comment and is awaiting a response.

Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania joined the EU in 2004, changing the dial in the nations’ relationships with Russia indefinitely.

Since then, the states have looked to align their electricity networks with the rest of the EU. The bloc provided more than 1.2 billion euros’ ($1.24 billion) worth of grants for the synchronization, which is seen as a strategic priority.

The sense of urgency around decoupling accelerated after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, with the conflict prompting fears among other former Soviet republics — including the Baltics — that they could also face similar Russian aggression in the future.

Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia’s continuing use of Soviet-era energy infrastructure was also viewed as a source of major insecurity, with concerns that Russia could disrupt power supplies at will.

The Baltic states are seen to be on the “frontline” with Russia and its ally Belarus (Latvia has a border with both, Estonia borders Russia while Lithuania shares a frontier with Belarus and the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad) and their former Soviet status has made them a target for “hybrid” threat activities, ranging from cyberattacks to suspected sabotage of power and communication cables under the Baltic Sea.

Cyberattacks against Estonia surged in 2022 following Russia’s full-scale invasion in Ukraine, Estonia’s Auväärt told CNBC.

“These ranged from hacktivist-driven DDoS [distributed denial-of-service] attacks to more sophisticated, targeted operations against government agencies and businesses. While Estonia has become adept at countering these threats, the overall risk level remains high. It is often difficult to determine whether hostile cyber activity is linked to specific events or part of a broader strategy,” he noted.

With the Baltics’ and Russia’s energy systems remaining interlinked despite the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, the planned decoupling from Russia over 30 years later is both significant and symbolic.

“The move by the three Baltic states will be the culmination of multi-year and multi-billion-euro efforts to delink critical energy infrastructure from the Soviet-era networks, which is viewed as a source of insecurity,” Andrius Tursa, Central and Eastern Europe advisor at risk consultancy Teneo, said in emailed comments this week.

“The countries have boosted the physical and cyber security of their energy systems in anticipation of potential external disruption efforts during this highly symbolic and technically complex transition,” he noted.

Disconnection from the Russian-run network will take place on Saturday morning, starting in Lithuania and ending in Estonia. The Baltic States will then carry out joint frequency and voltage tests over the weekend “to assess the procedural and technical measures of the Baltic States for maintaining frequency and their ability to cope independently,” grid operator Elering said. 

The desynchronization process completes on Sunday afternoon when the Baltic states connect and synchronize their grids with the continental European network, known as the Synchronous Grid of Continental Europe or UCTE.

Latvia’s Climate and Energy Minister Kaspars Melnis said there had already been attempts to spread misinformation about the switchover, stating that “in complex geopolitical conditions, it is true that society is more vulnerable, and as the set date for the conclusion of the synchronisation project comes closer, the more we encounter misleading information.”

“Therefore, we urge the public to treat information critically, not to fall foul of any emotionally charged pronouncements, and not to share news that has not been verified,” he said in comments posted on Latvian grid operator AST’s website.

Synchronization with the rest of the continent was crucial for the Baltics, he added, and “aims to ensure that we can maintain and control the grid ourselves, ensure stability and so that we are not dependent on the actions of our neighbours.”

There’s palpable relief about the forthcoming synchronization among Baltic energy operators; grid operator AST even features a countdown to the “Baltic States’ energy independence” on its website.