What to Watch at the Federal Reserve’s May Meeting

What to Watch at the Federal Reserve’s May Meeting

The Federal Reserve is set to extend its pause on interest rate cuts on Wednesday amid concerns that President Trump’s tariffs will unleash fresh inflationary pressures while also hurting growth, a tricky combination that could lead to painful trade-offs for the central bank. A decision to stand pat would keep …

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Trump Has Added Risk to the Surest Bet in Global Finance

Trump Has Added Risk to the Surest Bet in Global Finance

There are not many certainties in the world of money, but this traditionally has been one of them: When life turns scary, people take refuge in American government bonds. Investors buy U.S. Treasuries on the assumption that, come what may — financial panic, war, natural disaster — the federal government …

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Markets Worry About Finding an Exit From Trump’s Trade Fight

Markets Worry About Finding an Exit From Trump’s Trade Fight

The trade battle intensifies There’s no letup in sight to the trade war: This morning, China raised its tariffs on U.S. imports yet again. Beijing said it would not make economic sense to raise them further, and called the Trump administration’s dizzying tariffs barrage “a joke.” And this morning, Tesla …

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Which Interest Rate Should You Care About?

Which Interest Rate Should You Care About?

Watch out for interest rates. Not the short-term rates controlled by the Federal Reserve. Barring an unforeseen financial crisis, they’re not going anywhere, especially not after the jump in inflation reported by the government on Wednesday. Instead, pay attention to the 10-year Treasury yield, which has been bouncing around since …

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Hot Inflation Raises Stakes of Trump’s Tariffs

Hot Inflation Raises Stakes of Trump’s Tariffs

Hot inflation has raised the stakes of President Trump’s plans to escalate his use of tariffs on the country’s biggest trading partners, risking even higher consumer prices and pushing back the prospects of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates soon. New inflation data released this week showed price pressures intensifying. …

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Federal Debt Is Now Worrying Even Progressives

Federal Debt Is Now Worrying Even Progressives

The 119th Congress began, as it so often has in recent years, with calls from Republican politicians for wrestling down the national debt, which is near a record level relative to the size of the economy. But this time, the G.O.P. had company: Progressive economists and budget wonks, who have …

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