Duke and Auburn have excelled all season, so it’s not surprising that the two teams are front and center entering Champ Week.
Following the Blue Devils’ win over the Tigers at Cameron Indoor Stadium, both teams positioned themselves to secure the top overall seed in the NCAA tournament. But this week’s matchups could impact the fight for that spot, in addition to the Wooden Award competition between Cooper Flagg and Johni Broome.
There’s more intrigue across the board as we enter the final stretch of Champ Week. North Carolina needs a run in the ACC tournament to earn an at-large invitation to the dance on Selection Sunday — and help the league avoid its lowest number of NCAA tournament berths in a quarter century. Meanwhile, the SEC has three teams (Florida, Tennessee and Alabama) that could also collect a No. 1 seed based on results from this week. The league has also had a historic season that could lead to a record-breaking number of bids called on Selection Sunday. Kansas will need a rally in the Big 12 tournament to avoid a problematic matchup in the first round. Indiana is looking to lock up a spot while on its head coach’s farewell tour.
That’s just the major leagues. Throughout Champ Week, we’ll learn more about the team’s that can survive March and possibly win the national championship. We’ll also identify the squads that could spoil all of those plans, too. ESPN’s Myron Medcalf, Jeff Borzello and Joe Lunardi address it all.
Is Auburn still the No. 1 overall seed?
Jeff Borzello: I say yes, although the Tigers’ margin for error has gotten smaller after losing two in a row to end the regular season. That said, their résumé is still historically strong. They have 16 Quadrant 1 wins, by far the most in the country, and 21 wins in Quadrants 1 and 2, also the most in the country. They rank No. 1 in all three résumé-based metrics and sit in the top three in each of the other four teamsheet metrics. Auburn won the best league in the country and also handled a difficult nonconference schedule. Could Duke overtake it with an ACC tournament championship and an early Auburn exit in the SEC tourney — taking into account the Blue Devils’ head-to-head win back in December? It’s possible, but I think the committee still gives it to Bruce Pearl’s team.
Myron Medcalf: I agree that the notion of Auburn as the No. 1 overall seed feels less certain than it did a week ago. But the selection committee has been public about promoting that it is also incorporating other metrics to consider its picks. If that’s the case, Auburn’s edge remains. The Tigers are first in KPI. They’re first in strength of record, which considers a team’s record against the caliber of opponents it faced. They’re first in wins above bubble, which measures a team’s success compared to how a bubble team would have fared against the same competition. Plus, Auburn’s sheer advantage in the number of Quad I matchups (20) on its schedule this season compared to Duke (10) matters.
Joe Lunardi: Could Auburn lose its SEC quarterfinal and give up the top spot to a surging Duke or Houston (or a separate champion from its own conference)? I suppose. It would be three losses in a row for the Tigers at that point. At the end of the day, though, no one’s coming close to Auburn’s impressive 16-4 Quad 1 record. Unless the committee has an unexpected change of heart with respect to how it values a team’s overall body of work, the Tigers will be the first to hear their name on Selection Sunday.
A number of teams have flirted with a 1-seed this season. Who is most likely to join Auburn and Duke on the top line?
Borzello: Going into Champ Week, I think Houston and Florida are in a strong position to earn the final 1-seeds. Houston’s numbers are elite, ranking in the top three in five of the seven metrics used by the selection committee, and it has 11 Quad 1 wins — only Auburn and Michigan State have more. The Cougars have also lost only once since November. Florida looks to have the edge among the SEC options after beating Alabama in Tuscaloosa last week. Do the Gators have to go to the title game to keep that spot? They would likely have to beat Alabama again in the SEC semifinal.
Medcalf: I think Houston’s a lock for the third No. 1 seed. Every year, the committee seems to resent the idea that the “eye test” plays a role in the bracket, but one look at a Houston game during its 23-1 stretch to end the season would show the Cougars are worthy of a top slot. Plus, the key metrics love them. I also think Florida has earned the fourth No. 1 seed because of how the Gators finished off the regular season (seven top-50 wins since Feb. 1). They won their only matchups with Alabama and Auburn, respectively, and split with Tennessee. An Alabama SEC tournament run could change my mind, though.
Lunardi: Houston is going to be a No. 1 seed. The Cougars went 19-1 in the Big 12 and won what’s currently projected to be an eight-bid league by a ridiculous four games. The only race left is among three SEC teams — Florida, Alabama and Tennessee — for the last spot on the top line and a trip to the West Region. If it were me, I’d pick whichever of the three advances the furthest in Nashville. And if all three were to lose their opening game at the SEC tourney, I’d go off the board and promote Michigan State. The top line would then include all four power conference champions. But I’m not the committee, and they are going to pick the SEC survivor.
Which team has the most at stake entering its conference tournament?
Borzello: Xavier. There are a bunch of bubble teams that can play themselves in or out of the field this week, but there’s something about a one-game, potentially win-and-in scenario against a high-level opponent that intrigues me. North Carolina, Texas, Colorado State, etc., could all find themselves in a similar situation, but they need to win games just to get that opportunity. But Sean Miller’s Musketeers open Big East tournament play in the 4 vs. 5 game against Marquette, and I don’t think they can get into the NCAA tournament without a win. Beating the Golden Eagles likely gets them into the field. They’re just 1-9 against Quad 1 opponents, but they’re 8-1 in Quad 2, and their metrics are decent enough across the board. Another Quad 1 on a neutral court would move the needle.
Medcalf: North Carolina. This seems to have become a theme for this team, but the Tar Heels could potentially miss their second NCAA tournament in three years. From 1975 to 2009, North Carolina missed the NCAA tournament only twice. To avoid a rare stretch in program history this time, it will have to beat Pitt or Notre Dame in the second round of the ACC tournament — both of whom it recently defeated in one-point games — and then defeat another bubble team, Wake Forest, on Thursday, before it presumably gets a third shot at Duke on Friday. That seems to be its only certified path to an NCAA tournament berth. If the Tar Heels fail, then the offseason will center on Hubert Davis’ next steps with a program that has struggled to maintain its blue blood status in recent years.
Lunardi: I’m taking a nontraditional path here with VCU. Despite losing their regular-season finale, the Rams are plainly good enough. They have Quad 1 wins at Dayton and Saint Joseph’s. And they got burned in scheduling when Seton Hall and Miami both turned into dust. They are top-35 in all performance metrics and top-30 in the NET. What they can’t take is a bad loss in an Atlantic 10 tourney in which everyone will be rooting against them. If the Rams make the Sunday final, they are also in the NCAA tournament. But the A-10 is known for top seeds losing, so there will be plenty of intrigue in the nation’s capital.
Which team other than Auburn has the best shot to win the SEC tournament?
Borzello: Florida. I picked the Gators when we had to predict all 31 conference tournaments last week, and I’m sticking with Todd Golden’s team. The Gators are balanced, they’re experienced, they have size and they have depth now that they’re healthy. They also have emerging NBA prospects in Alex Condon and Thomas Haugh, proven shot-makers in Alijah Martin and Will Richard and arguably the best scorer in any game they play in Walter Clayton Jr.
Medcalf: Alabama. In the Crimson Tide’s win over Auburn on Saturday night on the road, they battled the former No. 1 team in the country, despite Mark Sears struggling throughout most of the game until he made the game winner. That’s the kind of win that will give Alabama a confidence boost as it prepares for the SEC tournament. The team’s pace (No. 1 in adjusted tempo on KenPom) is also a difficult style for any opponent to handle in a single-elimination event over consecutive days. Fatigue will be a factor for opponents. Plus, the Tide have played Tennessee and Florida close in recent weeks.
Lunardi: I’ve been leaning toward a Florida-Duke final in the NCAA tournament. The Gators, to me, are the most balanced team in the country. I think they would win a best-of-seven series against every team in the SEC. However, we all know there is no such thing in college basketball. So I’m going with Tennessee in its home state, with an upset of Auburn in the semifinals. I like the Vols’ defense to power them through the grind of three games in three days. What will that mean for the NCAA tournament? Absolutely nothing …
Which conference tournament most intrigues you?
Borzello: The SEC’s. Is there any other answer? It has every possible storyline for a high-major conference tournament. You want 1-seed drama? Auburn looks likely to hold on to the No. 1 overall seed, but will Florida, Alabama or Tennessee get the last 1-seed? Bubbles bursting? Arkansas should feel good about itself, but Texas is desperate and Oklahoma will probably only feel good with one more win. And then there’s the tournament title itself. With four top-10 teams, plus the likes of Kentucky, Texas A&M and Missouri, there are several teams that could win on three or four consecutive days.
Lunardi: I’ve always wanted to go to the Big 12 tournament in Kansas City. No reason other than it’s a perfect extension of Big Monday from the regular season. Those are among the rarest of games, when I get to just sit still and watch. Plus, the Big 12 tourney has two more of my favorite things: Fran Fraschilla on the call and Joe’s BBQ after the game. What a way to spend Champ Week!