How Harris’ candidacy reshapes the battle for Congress: From the Politics Desk

Welcome to the online version of From the Politics Desk, an evening newsletter that brings you the NBC News Politics team’s latest reporting and analysis from the campaign trail, the White House and Capitol Hill.

In today’s edition, Capitol Hill reporters Sahil Kapur and Scott Wong explore how having Kamala Harris at the top of the Democratic ticket is changing the down-ballot dynamic. Plus, national political correspondent Steve Kornacki breaks down the polls that show a lower number of undecided voters in a Donald Trump-Harris matchup.

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How Harris’ candidacy reshapes the battle for Congress

By Sahil Kapur and Scott Wong

The rapid replacement of President Joe Biden with Vice President Kamala Harris as the de facto Democratic nominee isn’t just upending the race for the White House. It’s also reshaping the dynamics for both parties in key contests set to decide control of Congress.

For Republicans, the calculus changes dramatically. Their candidates have embraced former President Donald Trump and were banking on tying Democrats to an aging and unpopular Biden to win competitive House and Senate races. Now they’re eyeing a way to pivot to Harris, and GOP operatives are already testing new lines of attack on her.

 For Democrats, candidates in battleground races still plan to localize their races as much as possible. But lawmakers and party operatives now hope they can benefit from the wave of enthusiasm provided by Harris’ campaign in down-ballot races.

GOP strategists said their priority is to craft and drive a negative portrait of Harris in the minds of voters, using some of the issues they attacked Biden on, such as immigration, crime and inflation.

House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., tested some of those lines Tuesday.

“Crises owned by Kamala Harris: the border crisis, the inflation crisis, the crime crisis, everything happening with the economy, our national security, weakness on the world stage. She is an equal partner in all of that,” Johnson told reporters. “What has she done other than make a mess of everything? We love this, we love that Kamala Harris is at the top of the ticket.”

Meanwhile, Democratic strategists say their candidates will continue to run state-specific Senate campaigns and district-specific House campaigns. Many of those candidates had been outperforming Biden for months before he dropped out, and party operatives expect that to continue with Harris, whose favorability ratings are also underwater in recent surveys.

Rep. Angie Craig of Minnesota, another vulnerable Democrat who pushed for Biden to leave the race, said a “tremendous amount of energy” has been injected into the Democratic Party since Biden’s announcement, particularly among young people. 

“In a swing district like mine, you’re seeing a lot of people who just didn’t like their two choices. They understand that they have new choices now,” Craig said in an interview just off the House floor. “And I think that many of those swing voters are going to be willing to give the vice president a second look, because this is not the same ticket it was 48 hours ago with her at the top.”

Read more from Sahil and Scott →

On the trail: Harris held the first rally of her presidential campaign Tuesday just outside Milwaukee, where she was sharply critical of Trump, Nnamdi Egwuonwu and Summer Concepcion write.

Referring to her background as a prosecutor, Harris told the crowd of over 3,000 that “I took on perpetrators of all kinds. Predators who abused women, fraudsters who ripped off consumers. Cheaters who broke the rules for their own game.”

“So hear me when I say I know Donald Trump’s type,” she said.

Harris also continued to consolidate the Democratic Party’s support, picking up endorsements from Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, both of New York, Frank Thorp V, Ryan Nobles and Kate Santaliz report. 

Veepstakes: Harris’ team has requested vetting materials from five possible running mates, per Monica Alba and Yamiche Alcindor: North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper, Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, Sen. Mark Kelly of Arizona, Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz.

Many of the names on the list hail from crucial battleground states. Lawrence Hurley also notes that Shapiro first made his name battling then-President Trump in court as Pennsylvania attorney general. 

Follow along with the latest 2024 election developments on our live blog →

More NBC News coverage of Harris

Harris’ campaign could bring undecided voters off the fence — in both directions

By Steve Kornacki

Harris is launching her White House bid pretty much where Biden left off: a few points behind Trump nationally. 

Democrats obviously hope Harris’ presidential campaign rollout will change how voters view her and this race, producing a meaningful polling improvement. And a new poll from Reuters/Ipsos (showing Harris at 44% among registered voters and Trump at 42%) very modestly, and tentatively, gives fuel to their optimism.

But previous polling hints at what could be a potentially significant difference in this new matchup. Essentially, it suggests that, faced with a Harris-Trump contest, the number of voters ready to pick sides may go up.

Take our national NBC News survey, conducted two weeks ago. Against Biden, Trump led 45% to 43%; against Harris, Trump was ahead 47% to 45% (both results within the margin of error). It’s the same 2-point spread, but Harris’ vote share is 2 points higher than Biden’s, just as Trump’s increases by 2 points with Harris as an opponent.

Similar shifts can be found elsewhere. A Quinnipiac University poll conducted mostly before Biden’s exit and released Monday, for instance, had Trump leading Biden 48% to 45%; with Harris subbed in, the result was 49% to 47% in favor of Trump. And a Morning Consult poll conducted after Biden’s withdrawal had Trump up 47% to 45% against Harris, while its previous survey had Trump ahead of Biden 47% to 41%. 

In total, six major polls over the last month have found that the combined vote share in a Harris-Trump trial heat is higher than in a Biden-Trump one:

Not all recent polls have found this, though a big reason is that several prominent pollsters ask undecided voters which candidate they are leaning toward and then record these voters as supporters of the candidate they pick. This produces poll results in which the combined Democratic and Republican vote shares add up to 100% — leaving no room for variance when different matchups are tested.

In addition, a one-day poll from NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist College released Tuesday found a stark rise in the undecided vote share with Harris as the Democratic candidate. But a change in methodology may account for it.

Why more voters would be more ready to choose sides with Harris as the Democratic nominee is an interesting question. We’re talking about small overall shifts here, so precise demographic pinpointing is a challenge. 

In our NBC News poll, though, two key groups did stand out: Black voters and Republican voters who say they aren’t satisfied with Trump as their nominee:

Biden led by 57 points with Black voters, while Harris held a 64-point advantage in the NBC News poll. Among dissatisfied Republicans, Trump’s lead went from 46 points against Biden to 47 points against Harris.  

It seems Harris’ entry into the race may be motivating a key part of each party’s traditional base to get off the sidelines and rejoin its partisan team. The net effect in our poll (and others) is basically zero, with both Harris and Trump gaining new support.

But more broadly, it suggests that there are voters across the political spectrum willing to reconsider the presidential race with Harris in it. And that means, as the electorate processes this candidate switch, that each side may have potential it previously didn’t to grow its pie further and create a clear advantage.

That’s all from the Politics Desk for now. If you have feedback — likes or dislikes — email us at politicsnewsletter@nbcuni.com

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