Both presidents’ economic records have been defined by the pandemic and its aftershocks. The covid crisis upended the job market, stoked decades-high inflation and added trillions of dollars to the federal debt.
The economy today is vastly different than it was in 2017, when Trump took office. But the data shows just how each administration has left its mark: Biden has added 15 million jobs in less than four years, brought the Black unemployment rate to a record low and reduced student loan debt by billions. Trump, meanwhile, presided over a period of low inflation, low interest rates and low gas prices.
Here are 12 charts showing the state of the economy now vs. under Trump.
The astoundingly strong labor market is arguably the White House’s biggest victory. In some ways, the bump was inevitable — Biden took office at a time when millions were still out of work because of the pandemic. Even so, the rapid job gains in recent years have blown past economists’ expectations and have fueled the economy’s blockbuster growth.
Even more remarkable is that the labor market has remained strong, despite the Federal Reserve’s aggressive efforts to slow the economy. As long as Americans are employed, they’ve been able to withstand inflation and keep spending, allowing the economy to grow.
Employers have created more than 15 million jobs during the Biden administration, with a monthly average of about 380,000 positions. Recently, though, the pace of job creation has slowed, with 272,000 new jobs in May.
By contrast, the economy added an average 176,000 jobs a month during Trump’s first three years, before coronavirus-related closures and layoffs resulted in the sudden loss of more than 20 million jobs.
Aside from a covid-fueled surge in much of 2020 and 2021, the national unemployment rate has remained low through both Trump’s and Biden’s presidencies.
Joblessness fell during the Trump years to a half-century low of 3.5 percent in early 2020, just before the pandemic. During Biden’s presidency, the unemployment rate has inched down even further, to 3.4 percent last year. It now stands at 4 percent.
The years-long pickup in hiring has been particularly good for workers who are typically underrepresented in the labor force. Unemployment rates for Hispanic workers, Black women and people with disabilities have all hit record lows under Biden’s watch.
The Black unemployment rate, which Trump liked to take credit for improving during his presidency, fell during both administrations, and reached an all-time low during the Biden era last year.
For the most part, the U.S. economy has expanded at a steady pace under both Trump and Biden. Gross domestic product, a measure of all of the goods and services produced in the country, has grown about 8.4 percent since Biden took office, after adjusting for inflation. That’s compared with a 6.8 percent uptick during Trump’s presidency, when the pandemic forced the economy into a steep and sudden recession. Even so, the economy rebounded quickly — thanks in part to trillions in stimulus money — and was growing again by the time Trump left office.
Now, under Biden, the economy has notched seven straight quarters of growth following a six-month slump in 2022. The latest expansion has been powered by solid consumer spending, which makes up about 70 percent of the economy, and new infrastructure and green-energy projects spearheaded by the Biden administration. Although economic growth has recently cooled — to an annualized rate of 1.4 percent, as of March — that is welcome news for the Fed, which has been trying to put a lid on inflation.
Presidents have very little control over gas prices. But this is one area where the Trump era was better for Americans — and could help explain some of the gloom Americans are feeling now.
Pandemic-related hiccups, the war in Ukraine and spikes in demand have all sent gas prices on a dizzying roller-coaster ride since 2020. Gas prices more than doubled between April 2020 and April 2022, from a national average of $1.84 a gallon to $4.11. They peaked at an all-time high of nearly $5 a gallon in June 2022 but have come down since to about $3.50 per gallon.
Gas prices have a direct effect on how Americans view the economy, and higher prices at the pump have translated to lingering pessimism for much of Biden’s presidency.
Homeownership is one of the biggest ways Americans create wealth, and the recent run-up in prices has been a double-edged sword: Many first-time home buyers been shut out of the market, but people who already own homes have benefited from soaring property values.
On the whole, though, homeownership has become far less accessible during the Biden administration. Home prices surged during the pandemic, rising an eye-popping 35 percent between spring 2020 and late 2022. Those higher costs have driven housing affordability to all-time lows, according to Goldman Sachs. Homes are selling for a median price of $421,000 — less than the $440,000 they were commanding a couple of years ago, but still well over pre-pandemic norms.
Mortgage rates have more than doubled in the past three years — from about 3 percent to about 7 percent — making it that much pricier to purchase a home and putting a chill on the market. But prices remain high because demand for homes continues to outpace supply.
Inflation has been a persistent challenge for the Biden administration. A rapid run-up in prices after the pandemic resulted in the highest inflation in more than 40 years. Americans have been pinched by higher costs for just about everything, including groceries, gas, cars and health care.
Although inflation has recently come down from 2022’s peaks, prices are still more than 3 percent higher than they were a year ago. Many Americans say higher costs have tainted their views of the economy, with voters consistently citing inflation as their top economic concern.
The president has very little power over interest rates. While the Federal Reserve’s chair and governors are appointed by the president and confirmed by Congress, the central bank operates independently.
But the Fed’s actions have a far-reaching effect on the economy. During Biden’s presidency, the central bank has raised interest rates 11 times as part of its effort to rein in inflation. The bank controls the federal funds target range — the interest rate that banks use to lend money to each other overnight — which, at 5.25 to 5.5 percent, is at its highest level in 22 years.
Each time the Fed raises that rate, or even hints that it might, there are ripple effects across the economy, resulting in higher borrowing costs for loans of all types, including mortgages (currently about 7 percent), personal loans (12 percent, according to Bankrate) and credit cards (above 20 percent).
Americans have less spending power than they did at the beginning of Biden’s term. A drop-off in stimulus money, plus rising prices, have caused large swings in household income since 2020. Still, many Americans are better off than they were a year ago, as wage gains outpace inflation.
During the Trump years, by comparison, Americans saw a steady increase in spending power until the start of the pandemic. Overall, real disposable income, or what Americans are left with after taxes and inflation, rose about 10 percent between January 2017 and January 2020.
The stock market rose rapidly during Trump’s presidency and has continued its ascent under Biden. After a period of slowing in 2022 — in anticipation of higher borrowing costs and increased volatility — stock prices have recently soared to record highs on optimism that the Fed may soon cut rates and that AI could unleash a productivity boom.
All three major stock indexes recently hit all-time peaks: the Dow Jones Industrial Average in May, and the Nasdaq and S&P 500 this month.
Trump kept a close eye on the stock market’s path during his presidency, often taking to social media to flaunt its successes. He also warned Americans that a Biden presidency would result in a “stock market collapse the likes of which you’ve never had.”
That has not happened — which the president was quick to note. “Good one, Donald,” Biden fired back on X late last year.
Outstanding student loan balances have been climbing for nearly two decades — until now.
Biden took office vowing to whittle down the debt burden on students and graduates. And while his most ambitious plans, including a $400 billion forgiveness plan, have been blocked by Republican lawmakers and the Supreme Court, his administration has found ways to offer relief.
To date, the White House has canceled some $167 billion in student loan debt for more than 4.7 million Americans. It has also increased federal Pell Grants to low- and middle-income students, allowing them to take on less debt. As a result, student loan balances fell for the first time ever last year. Americans owed $1.73 trillion at the end of 2023, down from a record $1.76 a year earlier.
Despite the economy’s strength, Americans appear to feel pretty crummy when it comes to their finances during Biden’s tenure. Consumer sentiment dropped to its lowest level ever in June 2022, when gas prices were at a record high. Since then, sentiment has rebounded somewhat but remains lower than when Trump was president.
But although they say they feel poorly about the economy, Americans are continuing to spend. That spending — on a variety of goods and services, including cars, travel and dining out — has helped power the economy and keep it growing.
The federal deficit peaked under Trump, though both he and Biden have added trillions to the national debt. The national deficit — or the gap between what the government brings in and what it spends — grew every year of Trump’s presidency. Sweeping tax cuts, followed by the government response to the pandemic, added an unprecedented $7.8 trillion to the country’s debt.
The deficit narrowed in the first two years of Biden’s presidency. But last year it grew again, by 23 percent, leaving the country with a $1.7 trillion shortfall.
That growing deficit, combined with political dysfunction in Congress, is setting off alarm bells for ratings agencies that track the United States’ financial standing. Fitch Ratings stripped the United States of its top AAA score in August. In November, Moody’s downgraded its outlook on U.S. sovereign debt, warning that “continued political polarization” threatens the country’s fiscal strength.
