The surge comes after the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) officially acknowledged ETF filings from Grayscale and the NYSE that seek to offer an XRP-based investment vehicle. While this does not guarantee approval, it signals an increasing likelihood that XRP ETFs could enter the market, sending bullish waves through the crypto space. The market sees this as good news, the XRP price has surged 13% over the last 24 hours.
XRP jumped 13% on the XRP ETF news, Source: BNC XRPLX
ETF Filing Sparks Optimism
The SEC’s decision to acknowledge Grayscale’s XRP ETF application is a notable shift in regulatory behavior. Historically, under the leadership of former Chair Gary Gensler, the SEC was quick to dismiss similar filings, often citing concerns over market manipulation and investor protection. However, with the changing political climate and a more pro-crypto stance from the incoming Trump administration, the regulatory landscape appears to be shifting.
Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Eric Balchunas noted that previous altcoin ETF applications were often withdrawn immediately after filing due to regulatory resistance. The SEC’s decision to engage with the applications instead of outright rejecting them is a “good sign” for XRP’s chances, he said.
This acknowledgment formally starts the clock on a review process that could lead to the eventual approval of an XRP ETF. Analysts estimate that the likelihood of such an approval by the end of 2025 stands at approximately 65%, with Polymarket prediction markets giving an even more optimistic probability of 81%.
There’s an 81% chance of spot XRP ETF approvals in 2025, Source: Polymarket
Factors Fueling XRP’s Rally
Beyond the ETF speculation, several other key factors are driving XRP’s bullish momentum. These include political changes, legal victories, increased adoption, and new product innovations. Below are the main reasons XRP is experiencing a significant rally:
1. The Trump Effect and Changing Crypto Regulations
Donald Trump’s presidency is seen as a positive shift for crypto regulation. His administration has been vocal about reducing regulatory roadblocks for digital assets, and Ripple executives are optimistic that a more crypto-friendly SEC will benefit XRP.
Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse recently stated that the company has seen more business in the U.S. in the last six weeks than in the previous six months combined, attributing this to the anticipation of clearer regulations under the new administration. Garlinghouse is tipped to join the White Crypto Advisory council.
2. Ripple’s Legal Battles Nearing Resolution
The SEC’s long-standing lawsuit against Ripple has been a cloud over XRP for years, but recent developments suggest that the battle is nearing its end. Last year, a major ruling determined that Ripple’s XRP sales to retail investors did not constitute securities transactions, a partial victory for the company.
Ripple is now appealing charges related to its institutional sales, but if the new, friendlier SEC either drops the appeal or settles, it would mark a significant legal win for XRP. Many analysts believe that a full resolution of the case would remove one of the biggest barriers to mainstream financial adoption.
3. Increased Institutional and Retail Demand
Investor interest in XRP has surged in response to ETF speculation. According to analysts, JPMorgan has previously predicted that an XRP ETF could attract more than $8 billion in investments. A regulated ETF would provide traditional investors with exposure to XRP without requiring them to navigate the complexities of crypto wallets and exchanges.
4. Ripple Expanding into the Stablecoin Market
Ripple has been actively expanding its product lineup, most notably with the launch of RLUSD, a dollar-pegged stablecoin designed to compete in the $233 billion stablecoin sector. CEO Brad Garlinghouse has emphasized that Ripple is positioning itself for greater adoption as the U.S. moves toward clearer regulatory frameworks.
While RLUSD has yet to gain significant market share—it currently ranks 29th among stablecoins with a $108 million valuation—its introduction signals Ripple’s ambitions to diversify beyond payments and remittances.
5. Broader Crypto ETF Momentum
The approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs earlier this year set a precedent that many believe will pave the way for altcoin ETFs, including XRP. Applications for Solana, Dogecoin, and Litecoin ETFs are also in the pipeline, with Litecoin seen as having the highest probability of approval due to its similarities to Bitcoin.
As more altcoin ETFs move through the SEC’s review process, investor confidence in regulatory acceptance of crypto-based financial products continues to grow. This broader trend is lifting sentiment around XRP and other top-tier cryptocurrencies.
What’s Next for XRP?
A recent analysis explores the potential impact if nine of the world’s largest banks, collectively holding nearly $30 trillion in assets, were to allocate just 0.5% of their holdings into XRP, Ripple’s native cryptocurrency. This would amount to an investment of approximately $148.7 billion, enabling the purchase of about 64.66 billion XRP tokens—representing 65% of XRP’s current circulating supply.
Such a substantial acquisition could lead to a significant supply shock, potentially driving XRP’s price from its current value of around $2.30 to approximately $4.60, assuming a direct correlation between market capitalization and price. However, market dynamics are complex, and limited supply coupled with increased demand could propel prices even higher, with some estimates suggesting figures between $10 and $50.
While XRP has experienced a 350% increase in value over the past year, it remains a volatile asset. Recent regulatory developments, such as the Trump administration’s crypto-friendly policies and potential resolutions in the Ripple vs. SEC case, have bolstered optimism. Nonetheless, traditional financial systems like SWIFT continue to dominate cross-border payments, and future regulatory changes could impact XRP’s adoption.
XRP’s recent price surge is a testament to the growing confidence in its long-term viability, bolstered by favorable regulatory developments, increasing institutional interest, and Ripple’s expansion into new markets. If the SEC ultimately approves an XRP ETF, it could unlock a new wave of investment, pushing the cryptocurrency’s value even higher.
With Polymarket predicting an 81% chance of an XRP ETF approval this year and analysts estimating a 65% probability by the end of 2025, XRP is positioned as one of the most promising assets in the crypto space right now.
While challenges remain—such as regulatory hurdles and competition from other crypto projects—XRP’s recent rally suggests that investors are increasingly optimistic about its future. Whether or not an ETF is officially greenlit, the momentum surrounding XRP indicates that the asset is far from fading into obscurity. Instead, it may be on the verge of a new era of institutional acceptance and mainstream adoption.