The presidential election may be over, but campaign season is just getting underway in Hollywood.
The 97th Academy Awards are on March 2, which means film industry executives and publicists will spend the next few months barnstorming America’s movie capital lobbying for support from the nearly 10,000 members who vote on the Oscars. (If you live in the Los Angeles area, get ready for “For Your Consideration” ads all over town.)
This year, the best picture race lacks a clear front-runner — unlike the previous two Oscar cycles, when “Everything Everywhere All at Once” and “Oppenheimer” established clear and early advantages.
“This year is a wide-open field, and there’s plenty of time for things to change in the coming weeks and months as campaigns heat up,” said Debra Birnbaum, the editor-in-chief of the awards prediction website Gold Derby.
Here’s a look at some of the leading contenders and why they seem to have momentum before the first ballots are cast.
‘Anora’
Sean Baker is one of contemporary American cinema’s leading chroniclers of people on the margins of society, particularly sex workers. “Tangerine,” “The Florida Project” and “Red Rocket” burnished his credentials, but “Anora,” his latest project, cemented him in film history. At the 77th Cannes Film Festival in May, “Anora” won the Palme d’Or, one of the most prestigious prizes in the movie world.
“Anora” stars Mikey Madison as a Brooklyn stripper who enters into a shotgun marriage with the spoiled scion of a Russian oligarch, setting the young newlyweds on a crash course with his ruthless parents and the three goons hired to break them apart. The film has earned rave reviews, raising expectations that Baker could repeat what Bong Joon-ho pulled off with “Parasite” four years ago, triumphing at both Cannes and the Oscars.
How to watch: In theaters now.
‘The Brutalist’
Brady Corbet got his start as an actor in films like “Thirteen” and “Mysterious Skin,” but in recent years he has established himself as an ambitious director, working closely with his partner, Mona Fastvold. Corbet’s latest is “The Brutalist,” a sweeping 215-minute epic about a gifted Hungarian Jewish architect (Adrien Brody) who flees the horrors of World War II and attempts to reconstruct his life in the United States.
“The Brutalist” earned Corbet the Silver Lion for directing at this year’s Venice Film Festival, where it impressed audiences with its complex vision of postwar America and Jewish identity. The project was then picked up for distribution by A24, the independent powerhouse behind the unlikely Oscar winners “Moonlight” and “Everything Everywhere All at Once.”
How to watch: In theaters Dec. 20.
‘Blitz’
British director Steve McQueen prevailed at the Oscars a decade ago with “12 Years a Slave.” In the years since, he has directed a sneakily political heist thriller (“Widows”), a sprawling television anthology series (“Small Axe”) and a 266-minute documentary about the Nazi occupation of Amsterdam. “Blitz” takes a more conventional form, focusing on the bond between mother and son in London during WWII.
Saoirse Ronan, a four-time acting nominee at the Oscars, stars in “Blitz” alongside newcomer Elliott Heffernan, who plays a strong-willed boy determined to reunite with his family as German aerial forces rain bombs on war-scarred London. The decidedly old-fashioned and emotionally affecting tale might appeal to academy voters who previously awarded top honors to films like “The English Patient” and “Schindler’s List.”
How to watch: Stream on Apple TV+.
‘Conclave’
What happens when you lock a group of power-hungry cardinals in a room and ask them to elect a new pope? “Conclave” answers that question with high style and narrative panache, taking us on a twisty ride through the halls of the Vatican. “Conclave” director Edward Berger, already an Oscar winner for “All Quiet on the Western Front,” gets ace performances out of Ralph Fiennes, Stanley Tucci and John Lithgow.
“Conclave” could hit the sweet spot for Oscar voters, with its blend of taut airport paperback thrills and contemporary social relevance. (The conclave of the title pits an alliance of liberal reformers against traditionalists who want to halt social change.) It’s already one of the fall’s small-scale sleeper hits, grossing nearly $30 million. (The film’s distributor is Focus Features, a unit of NBC News’ parent corporation, Comcast.)
How to watch: In theaters now.
‘Dune: Part Two’
Oscar voters have never handed the best picture prize to a science-fiction blockbuster, but they might consider making an exception for “Dune: Part Two,” Denis Villeneuve’s immersive follow-up to his 2021 hit starring Timothée Chalamet, Zendaya and a long roster of A-list supporting players. The second installment played to packed multiplexes, nabbed enthusiastic reviews and swept up more than $714 million worldwide.
The first “Dune” scored 10 nominations at the 94th Academy Awards in 2022 and won six awards that night — the most of any movie in contention — including best sound, best production design, best cinematography, best film editing and best visual effects. Villeneuve is also a favorite with Oscar voters thanks to previous nominated titles like “Sicario,” “Arrival” and “Blade Runner 2049.”
How to watch: Stream on Max.
‘Emilia Pérez’
No film on his list is as genre-smashing as Jacques Audiard’s “Emilia Pérez,” an over-the-top musical and crime thriller about a Mexican cartel boss who dreams of transitioning into a woman. The four performers who anchor “Emilia Pérez” — Karla Sofía Gascón, Selena Gomez, Adriana Paz and Zoe Saldaña — shared best actress honors at Cannes, where the film delighted and baffled audiences in seemingly equal measure.
How to watch: Stream on Netflix.
‘Gladiator II’
Ridley Scott’s “Gladiator” conquered the Academy Awards more than 23 years ago, winning five trophies, including best picture and best actor, for Russell Crowe. Scott returns to the “swords-and-sandals” genre in this sequel starring Paul Mescal (Oscar-nominated in 2023 for his role in “Aftersun”) as Crowe’s character’s son; Pedro Pascal, Connie Nielsen and Denzel Washington round out the cast.
How to watch: In theaters now.
‘Nickel Boys’
The Dozier School for Boys in the Florida panhandle town of Marianna was once one of the most infamous educational institutions in the country, notorious for the physical and sexual abuse of students by staff. RaMell Ross, making his narrative feature debut, excavates that dark legacy in “Nickel Boys,” a portrait of two Black boys who are sent to a violent reform school closely modeled on Dozier.
Ross, adapting a novel of the same name by the Pulitzer Prize-winning author Colson Whitehead, shot “Nickel Boys” in a bold, first-person point-of-view style: We see only what the characters see, as if we’re in their shoes. “Nickel Boys” received rapturous reviews after it premiered in late August at the 51st Telluride Film Festival, where some critics hailed it as one of the best films of the decade so far.
How to watch: In theaters Dec. 13.
‘A Real Pain’
Jesse Eisenberg and Kieran Culkin co-star as mismatched cousins who journey to Poland to connect with their ancestral Jewish heritage and visit the birthplace of their late grandmother. The trip, equal parts heartbreaking and amusing, forces both young men to confront their personal demons and the trauma of their family’s past. (In addition to acting in “A Real Pain,” Eisenberg also wrote and directed the film.)
“A Real Pain” was nominated for the Grand Jury Prize at this year’s Sundance Film Festival, and Eisenberg won a screenwriting award. Oscar prognosticators expect the film to be in the mix for best picture as well as best original screenplay and best supporting actor for Culkin, who earlier this year landed an Emmy for his performance on the final season of HBO’s “Succession.”
How to watch: In theaters now.
‘September 5’
The terror attack at the 1972 Summer Olympics in Munich is the center of this tense docudrama told from the point of view of the ABC Sports crew that covered the disturbing events live. Peter Sarsgaard portrays the legendary ABC broadcasting executive Roone Arledge; John Magaro and Ben Chaplin play two of his associates. “September 5” drew a largely positive response at Venice and Telluride.
How to watch: In theaters Nov. 27.
‘Sing Sing’
The director Greg Kwedar trains his lens on a group of inmates at Sing Sing Correctional Facility in New York, some of them played by professional actors (Colman Domingo, Paul Raci) and others by formerly incarcerated men, including criminal justice activist Jon-Adrian “J.J.” Velazquez, whose decadeslong mission to prove his innocence was chronicled by NBC’s “Dateline.”
In the film, the imprisoned men act in theatrical productions behind bars via the real-life Rehabilitation Through the Arts program, which attempts to give inmates a vehicle for emotional self-expression. “Sing Sing” debuted in select theaters over the summer, but A24 has mounted an awards push in the final months of the year, holding screenings and Q&As in New York and Los Angeles.
How to watch: It’ll eventually stream on Max.
‘Wicked’
The most inescapable blockbuster of the holiday season could cast a spell on Oscar voters. “Wicked,” the first of a two-part adaptation of the smash Broadway musical, stars Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande as young witches in the Land of Oz who form an unlikely bond that grows increasingly strained. Universal Pictures (a unit of NBC News’ parent corporation, Comcast) pulled out all the stops to make “Wicked” a box-office superhit.
How to watch: In theaters now.
Also in the Oscars conversation:
“Babygirl,” Halina Reijn’s erotic thriller co-starring Nicole Kidman and Harris Dickinson; “Challengers,” Luca Guadagnino’s steamy love triangle set in the world of professional tennis; James Mangold’s “A Complete Unknown,” a portrait of Bob Dylan starring Timothée Chalamet; “The Piano Lesson,” Malcolm Washington’s adaptation of August Wilson’s play; “The Seed of the Sacred Fig,” Mohammad Rasoulof’s tense exploration of modern Iran; and “The Substance,” Coralie Fargeat’s gross-out satire of modern beauty standards.
