Liz Loza and I hit four of our six combined props last week, and we went three of four on the Thanksgiving Day slate, including a really nice SGP from Liz on DJ Moore.
Things have been heating up lately, so let’s keep that money train rolling this week, and don’t forget to find Liz and I on ESPN Bet Live, Sunday morning on ESPN2 at 9:40 a.m. ET.
With that out of the way, let’s dive into our Week 13 props that pop! — Daniel Dopp
Justin Herbert OVER 19.5 rushing yards (-125)
Loza: The strength of Herbert’s arm has been a much-discussed topic. His sneaky mobility, however, has gone under the radar. The Bolts QB currently ranks inside the top-15 at the position in rushing, averaging over four carries and 19 rushing yards per contest. His rushing output has surged as of late, as the 26-year-old has scampered for at least 29 yards in four of his past five outings. That’s a trend that figures to continue at Atlanta on Sunday. The Falcons have allowed the sixth-most rushing yards to opposing QBs, giving up an average or 28 rushing yards per contest to the position. In what’s projected to be a close game with a spread of just one point and with J.K. Dobbins sidelined, the entirety of Herbert’s skill set figures to be on full display. Expect him to use his arm and his legs to much success on Sunday.
Matthew Stafford OVER 249.5 passing yards & Kyren Williams to score TD (YES +150)
Loza: Stafford ranks fifth at the position in pass attempts (35 per game) and sixth among QBs in passing yards per contest (254.5). His numbers have jumped considerably since getting both Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua back on the field, as he’s averaged over 280 passing yards per game since Week 8. In fact, Stafford has cruised well over 250 passing yards in four of his last five games with Week 12’s tilt versus Philadelphia being the only exception. The Eagles pass rush is, undoubtedly, more ferocious than the Saints’, which means Stafford should have more time and space to get the ball downfield in Week 13.
New Orleans’ defense additionally struggles at stopping the run, allowing 5.0 YPC to opposing rushers. The Saints have given up four rushing scores to RBs over the team’s last three outings. Williams’ TDs have receded since the aforementioned return of Kupp and Nacua, but he found the end zone last week and given the matchup he’s a solid bet to cross the goal line again in Week 13.
Running back props
Bucky Irving OVER 76.5 rushing + receiving yards (-118)
Dopp: Despite the committee status in Tampa, Irving has been crushing it lately. He has tallied at least 77 scrimmage yards in five of the last six games, the only exception being against a tough Chiefs defense, and he has scored in four of those outings. He owes a good part of that success to his passing game work as well, as he’s had at least three receptions in five straight games. He clearly looks like the future of this Bucs backfield, and Todd Bowles hasn’t been shy to feature the rookie this year.
Even with Rachaad White splitting time, Irving has carved out his own path to production and I don’t expect that to change against this Panthers team that’s given up the second-most rushing yards this year. On top of that, Carolina has been mid-pack against RBs in the passing game, with no major standout metrics in either direction when RBs have been targeted. With Tampa’s continued push to make the playoffs, as well as their reliance on the young rookie, and a cake defense to run against, I’m expecting Irving to once again hit that 77-yard mark for a sixth time in seven games.
Rachaad White ANYTIME TD (+130)
Dopp: I know I just talked about Irving crushing it, but let’s not forget about White, who has been quite productive himself. White has found the end zone in every single game since Week 7 and now he’s taking on a Panthers defense that has given up 17 rushing touchdowns so far this year, the second most in the NFL. They’ve also given up another two receiving touchdowns to RBs, which bodes well for White and his knack for the finding the end zone.
After going scoreless in his first five games this year, he has tallied six touchdowns over his last five games. This game lines up nicely for White to keep that touchdown train rolling. He’s getting plenty of work, especially in the passing game, but he’s also had five goal-to-go rush attempts over the last four weeks. I can’t tell you if he’d find the end zone on the ground or through the air, but he should continue his touchdown streak in Week 13.
James Cook ANYTIME TD (-135)
Dopp: If you told me at the start of the year that the San Francisco 49ers were going to allow rushers to find the end zone at the third-highest rate this year, I would’ve thought you were crazy. But that’s exactly where we’re at as the Niners have given up 16 touchdowns on the ground this year, and another two touchdowns through the air to running backs. Meanwhile, we’ve seen a complete role reversal in Buffalo with James Cook leading the Bills in rushing touchdowns this year and not Josh Allen. It was just one year ago that Allen had 15 rushing scores, much to the chagrin of fantasy football managers. This year has been a completely different story with Cook tied for third amongst RBs with 11 total touchdowns. With Cook cooking and 49ers defense looking nothing like the team we expected this year, give me Cook for an anytime TD in this one.
Wide receiver props
Tee Higgins OVER 69.5 rec yards (-125) Loza: When healthy, Higgins has played like a man possessed (or at least obsessed with securing his next deal), clearing 75 receiving yards in each of his last four games. Interestingly, Higgins has out-targeted Ja’Marr Chase 57-51 in the duo’s six games played together. Higgins could, once again, lead the corps in looks with Joey Porter Jr. likely to shadow Chase. Coming off of a monster 9-148-1 effort and fully rested post-bye, Higgins has momentum on his side heading into a divisional tilt on Sunday. With a projected point total of 47.5, there figures to be plenty of opportunities for the team’s No. 2 WR to shine, making a 5-70-0 stat line well within reach.
