After an agonizingly long wait (which seemed even longer if you were an SEC bubble team), it’s finally mid-March, and that means the NCAA basketball tournament is here. Headlined by No. 1 seeds Duke, Arizona, Michigan and Florida — as well as a cohort of the usual blue bloods, some new faces and a few potential Cinderella teams — there are plenty of opportunities for bettors to get in on the action.
It’s no surprise that several of the top seeds are the favorites to win the national title, with Duke as the front-runner at +330, while Michigan (+350), Arizona (+425), Florida (+700), Houston (+1000) and UConn (+1700) round out the betting favorites to take it all.
Our college basketball betting analysts, researchers and editors reveal their favorite early bets since the bracket dropped, ranging from picks in the first round to some futures for the title game.
Odds by DraftKings Sportsbook. Odds accurate at time of publish and are subject to change.
Kevin Pulsifer (researcher): North Carolina isn’t the same team that beat Duke earlier this season. Caleb Wilson‘s injury has limited the Tar Heels’ ceiling, and now they face a VCU team that gets to the free throw line at a top-20 rate in the country, which could counteract one of North Carolina’s defensive strengths if the refs have a tight whistle (which often happens in the NCAA tournament). UNC has won one game away from the Dean Dome without Wilson, against a hapless Syracuse squad. Meanwhile, the Rams were tested in the nonconference schedule, taking NC State down to the wire in Raleigh and beating Virginia Tech by 18 on a neutral court. VCU won’t be afraid here.
Mark Zinno (analyst): The committee loves to take lower-seeded teams’ strengths and match up them with higher-seeded teams’ weaknesses. That’s what you have here with High Point facing the Badgers. The Panthers average over 90 points per game, and Wisconsin’s defense leaves a lot to be desired. Wisconsin is a middle-of-the-road team in effective field goal shooting defense and 3-point shooting defense. High Point will present all sorts of problems for the Badgers.
The Panthers have the nation’s longest current winning streak at 14 games. They play with a ton of pace, and their ball movement allows them to get inside and make easy buckets. They also have an excellent perimeter defense, holding opponents to 31.9% shooting from 3, and the Badgers are immensely dependent on 3s falling. High Point forces the fifth-most turnovers in the nation and could frustrate Wisconsin shooters. If there is a prototypical 5-12 upset this year, this is it.
Keith Lipscomb (editor): I like this matchup for Miami, even with the game being played in St. Louis, just a two-hour drive from Missouri’s campus. That matters a lot less in the tourney. The Hurricanes have been strong at both ends of the court, particularly on the glass, where I expect Ernest Udeh Jr. and Malik Reneau to be too much for the Tigers to handle. Miami has traveled well this season — a 10-5 road/neutral record, with those losses coming to Florida, BYU, Virginia (twice) and Clemson. And Missouri has struggled away from home (5-9), including a 91-48 drubbing at the hands of Illinois in the very building in which this game will take place. I expect Canes coach Jai Lucas will have a plan to slow down red-hot Mark Mitchell and dare other Tigers to do damage.
Mackenzie Kraemer (researcher): One of my favorite recent NCAA tournament trends has been to go under on high totals, and there is no total higher than Saint Louis-Georgia at 171.5. Over the past six tourneys, first-round unders are 30-12 when the total is at least 150. Both teams want to score and play fast, but over the previous 10 games, the Billikens have the second-largest drop in adjusted offensive efficiency. Across that same span, Georgia has seen the second-largest drop in adjusted pace. Last year, only three NCAA games had at least 172 points, so I will hold my nose and click the under.
(2) UConn to make Elite Eight (+170)
(2) UConn to make Elite Eight (+170)Zinno: The Huskies are overseeded in my opinion. However, the selection committee did them a solid with a very favorable draw here. While the Furman Paladins are a pesky team, they are a bad matchup against UConn’s defense, which has the size required to not cede the inside and the rebounding to not allow second-chance points.
In their second matchup, the Huskies might not even see No. 7 UCLA and instead get No. 10 UCF, as Mick Cronin’s Bruins have struggled on the East Coast in the Big Ten. UCF got mauled by similar teams in Arizona, Houston and Iowa State; and UConn profiles like those squads do.
If it is No. 3 Michigan State in the Sweet 16, that’s a coin flip game to me, with the Huskies’ perimeter defense shutting down the Spartans. I can see all the higher-seeded teams in the bottom half of the East bracket losing their first-round matchup, which gives the Huskies an easier path. UConn has one of the better draws in this tournament and should see three wins in a row here.
(3) Virginia to make Elite Eight (+310)
(3) Pulsifer: The Cavaliers just took Duke down to the wire and held Cameron Boozer to 3-of-17 shooting in the ACC title game, thanks to incredible post defense by Ugonna Onyenso and a nine-man rotation in which the bench is as strong as the starters. Virginia is balanced inside and outside, on offense and on defense, and they have a favorable draw. A streaky Tennessee team awaits in the second round (or an inferior SMU team the Cavaliers already beat or a Miami [Ohio] team that’s weak in predictive metrics) then a potential Sweet 16 matchup against Iowa State that actually suits UVA. The Cyclones tend to underperform in March due to a massive home-court advantage in the regular season, and they struggle mightily from the free throw line. Iowa State also encourages teams to shoot 3s, something Virginia is comfortable doing.
(7) Miami to make Sweet 16 (+400)
(7) Miami to make Sweet 16 (+400)Lipscomb: Why not build on the first-round pick and roll (yes, intended) with the Canes to survive the first weekend? To do that, they’ll need to take care of No. 2 seed Purdue, which is coming off a grueling Big Ten championship game. This one is about the value for me, as I believe Miami isn’t being taken seriously enough. (It has the 25th-shortest odds to win two games.) My largest area of concern in the Purdue matchup is the Boilermakers’ perimeter prowess (38%, top 20 in the nation). However, putting the shoe on the other foot, I think Miami can get what they want on the offensive end and give Purdue all it can handle, and then some, in what I expect will be a physical battle. This feels like a Tru Washington X factor game off the Miami bench.
(2) Purdue to the Final Four (+360)
(2) Kraemer: Purdue entered the season as the favorite to win the national championship, and after claiming the Big Ten championship, the Boilermakers still have the second-longest odds of any 2-seed to reach the Final Four. While they are only 36th in adjusted defensive efficiency — typically a red flag for winning national championships — that shouldn’t stop them from being a strong contender in the West Region. Purdue has the best offense in the country. More importantly, it has a very soft draw. Third-seeded Gonzaga and 6-seed BYU are without pivotal players in Braden Huff and Richie Saunders. Top-seeded Arizona has underachieved in the NCAA tournament under Tommy Lloyd, and a Sweet 16 matchup against either Wisconsin or Arkansas Razorbacks could knock out the Wildcats. Purdue’s Braden Smith, Fletcher Loyer and Trey Kaufman-Renn are three of the most experienced players in this tournament, and they have enough skill and experience to reach the Final Four.