The Social Security Administration won’t announce the 2026 cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) to benefits until next month, but experts are already making forecasts.
The Senior Citizens League (TSCL) estimates the COLA bump will be 2.7%. That’s up from the 2.5% increase retirees received in 2025, one of the lowest on record. But it’s still shy of the 2.9% increase in inflation recorded between August 2024 and August 2025.
“While a higher COLA would be welcome because their monthly benefits will increase, many will be disappointed,” TSCL executive director Shannon Benton said in a statement. “[Our] research shows that many seniors believe the COLA does not adequately capture the inflation they experience.”
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Almost 68 million Americans receive monthly Social Security benefits. A 2.7% increase would raise the average benefit check by about $54, from $2,008 per month to $2,062.
Independent Social Security and Medicare policy analyst Mary Johnson is slightly more optimistic: She predicts a 2.8% COLA for 2026, which would bump the average benefit check by about $56 per month.
Since the mid-1970s, the SSA has adjusted benefits at the start of each calendar year to keep up with rising costs. Its calculations are based on the changes in the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) between the third quarter of the current year and Q3 of the previous year. (In this case, the difference between July-September 2024 and July-September 2025).
The actual increase will be disclosed on October 15, 2025, following the release of CPI-W data for September 2025.
When will I see the increase in my Social Security check?
Social Security benefits will reflect the COLA starting in January 2026. Beneficiaries receive checks based on their date of birth:
- If you were born between the first and the 10th of the month, you should see the increase in the check arriving on Jan. 14, 2026.
- If you were born between the 11th and 20th of the month, expect it on Jan. 21, 2026.
- If you were born between January 21st and the end of the month, the first bigger check should arrive on Jan. 28, 2026.
Some recipients will receive the increase sooner, however.
- If you’ve received Social Security benefits since before May 1997, your first check of the year should arrive on Jan. 3, 2025.
- If you receive Supplemental Security Income (SSI), those benefits are typically paid on the first of the month. Since New Year’s Day is a federal holiday, those checks will be distributed on Dec. 31, 2025.
The full calendar of Social Security payment dates is available online.
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Other changes to Social Security in 2026
In addition to the COLA, there are several other aspects of Social Security that will change in the new year.
1. Full retirement age goes up: Full retirement age (FRA) is when you can receive 100% of your Social Security benefits. Starting in November 2025, the FRA will increase to 66 years and 10 months for people born in 1959.
In January 2026, the FRA will reach 67 for people born in or after 1960, the final step in the transition of the retirement age from 65 to 67.
People born on Jan. 1 should refer to the previous year.
2. The Social Security tax limit increases: The maximum taxable earnings limit for Social Security is expected to be $183,600 in 2026, according to the 2025 Social Security Board of Trustees Report. That’s an increase of $7,500 from 2025.
The official 2026 wage base will be announced along with the COLA in October 2025.
3. You’ll be able to earn more while still collecting benefits: The Social Security earnings test limits how much in benefits you can receive while working.
- For people below FRA next year, the estimated annual earnings limit is $24,360: $1 in benefits will be withheld for every $2 earned above that cap.
- For people reaching FRA in 2026, the earnings limit is $64,800: $1 in benefits will be withheld for every $3 earned above that cap until the month they reach FRA.
- After you reach your FRA, you can earn any amount of money without reducing your Social Security benefits
When can I start collecting Social Security?
You can begin collecting Social Security at age 62, although you won’t get your full benefits until you reach full retirement age. The amount will be higher the longer you wait to apply, up until age 70.
| Year of birth | Social Security full retirement age |
|---|---|
| 1943-1954 | 66 |
| 1955 | 66 and two months |
| 1956 | 66 and four months |
| 1957 | 66 and six months |
| 1958 | 66 and eight months |
| 1959 | 66 and 10 months |
| 1960 or later | 67 |
Social Security FAQs
How is the Social Security COLA calculated?
The COLA is based on the year-over-year activity of the CPI-W, which measures the prices of food, clothing, shelter, transportation, medical care, recreation and other goods and services. If there has been an increase in the CPI-W from Q3 of the previous year to Q3 of the current year, that amount (rounded to the nearest tenth of a percent) becomes the COLA.
Can the COLA ever be negative?
No, the COLA will never go backwards. If the CPI-W decreases, Social Security benefits will simply remain static. Since the system was started in 1975, there have been three years with no COLAs: 2010, 2011 and 2016.
Are Social Security benefits taxable?
Social Security payments have been taxable since 1984, but whether your check is taxed depends on how much you earn: If your income is under $25,000 ($32,000 for married couples), your benefits are not taxed. If you earn between $25,000 and $34,000 as a single filer (between $32,000 and $44,000 as a married couple), up to half of your benefits can be taxed. And if you earn above $34,000 ($44,000 for married couples), up to 85% of your benefits can be taxed.
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