How Alex Ovechkin’s injury impacts goal chase, playoff hopes

Washington Capitals captain Alex Ovechkin is expected to miss the next four to six weeks after sustaining a fractured left fibula, the team announced Thursday.

And thus, the Great 8’s pursuit of the all-time NHL record for goals, currently held by Wayne Gretzky, is now paused. Ovechkin currently has 868 goals and is chasing down Gretzky’s 894.

Meanwhile, the Capitals are in second place in the Metropolitan Division, just a point off the pace of the Carolina Hurricanes, with the season nearly at the quarter mark.

What exactly is the injury? How will the Capitals be impacted on the ice and in the dressing room? Here’s what we know now, and what comes next.

What do we know about his injury?

Ovechkin has missed only 35 games due to injury in his entire 20-season career. That is an astounding mark on its own and highlights the veteran’s overall durability. Even his teammates were shocked that Ovechkin could be sidelined for such a stretch.

“Everyone’s bummed out,” said winger Tom Wilson, an Ovechkin teammate since 2013. “We were sitting there saying, ‘This is weird. Like, it’s unbelievable that he’s actually hurt.’ It’s one of those things where like, he’s going to miss games? I’ve been around a long time, and it’s new to me.”

That’s what made Ovechkin’s shin-on-shin collision against Utah so tough to see — immediately it looked bad. Ovechkin sported a walking boot out of the arena that night, and now the Capitals have confirmed it’s a fibula fracture. Those can be difficult to come back from. Jake DeBrusk, for example, fractured his fibula in the 2023 Winter Classic, and it was more than six weeks before the Boston Bruins even began cautiously working him back into the lineup.

There will be a physical and mental component to Ovechkin’s recovery; the fibula itself has to heal, and then he has to be confident in going back on the ice, taking contact, cutting on his edges and trusting the work he has put into strengthening his muscles again. At 39 years old, that won’t be easy. — Shilton

What does this mean for his chase of Wayne Gretzky’s record?

Before the injury, Ovechkin was on pace to score what would have been a career-high 68 goals this season. He is 26 goals shy of tying the record, and he would have surpassed Gretzky in either late December or early January if he kept scoring at that pace.

But now? The earliest he could return to the Capitals’ lineup would be Dec. 20 against the Carolina Hurricanes, while the six-week end of the window means he would return Jan. 2 versus the Minnesota Wild, with the NHL’s Christmas break splitting the difference. If he returns by Dec. 20, he will have missed 13 games, whereas the Jan. 2 return date pushes that figure to 18 games — a difference of five games. It would leave him with 51 games remaining if he returns by Dec. 20 or 43 games should he come back after the New Year.

In either event, he has more than half of the regular season left to break the record. But it also comes with the realization that to break the record, he would have to score 0.49 goals per game if he comes back Dec. 20, with that number rising to 0.58 goals per game if he returns Jan. 2. If he doesn’t hit those rates, we are looking at the start of the 2025-26 season to break Gretzky’s record. — Clark

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How will the Capitals be impacted on the ice?

In a word? Immensely. Losing its top goal scorer for more than four weeks is a challenge for any team. But when it’s someone who was on pace to score nearly 70 goals, on a team that leads the NHL with 4.33 goals per game? That just further amplifies what Ovechkin’s absence will mean to the Caps.

It’s possible that Capitals coach Spencer Carbery could turn to a top line that features Connor McMichael at left wing, centered by Pierre-Luc Dubois with Wilson at right wing. That would leave the Caps with Dylan Strome anchoring a second line with Andrew Mangiapane and Aliaksei Protas, which appeared to be their setup before Thursday’s game against the Colorado Avalanche.

Even though Ovechkin leads them in goals, the Caps have received significant contributions from a pair of homegrown talents in McMichael and Protas. McMichael entered Thursday second on the team with 12 goals, while Protas was third with seven.

That said, a player the Capitals would love to see step up is Dubois. He has been productive — he has 12 points in 18 games. It’s just that he has scored only one goal this season — a jarring number considering he has been a four-time 20-goal scorer in his career. — Clark

What about the emotional element?

Every single player in the dressing room has been invested in Ovechkin’s quest to break Gretzky’s record, and they’ve thrived off helping him inch closer to history. Will Ovechkin’s absence leave an intangible void? Especially if seeing him have such a tremendous start to the season — and be on the pace he was to hit Gretzky’s mark — was a boost for this overachieving Washington team? It’s certainly something to consider, and perhaps some of the Capitals already are.

“You know when goal scorers start scoring, it’s dangerous,” said John Carlson, who has been teammates with Ovechkin since 2009. “We see him coming to the rink every day, we know what’s at stake. You never want anyone to get injured, but there’s a lot to it, and certainly he was playing his best hockey in years.”

It will fall on Washington’s leadership group now to ensure there’s no hangover related to Ovechkin’s injury, and to instill belief that not only can the Capitals continue to be a contender without him, but that their overall sense of purpose on the season doesn’t take any sort of hit, either. — Shilton